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wiki:aiki probabilities

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Aiki probabilities


The following table conveys the statistics for rolling the Cleromancer's Aiki ability. Aiki is calculated in the following manner:

The attacker rolls only the dice portion of their offensive formula, dropping all other bonuses. For each successful hit, the defender must match the die face in order to successfully defend against the attack. A match can be made by rolling the same face, or by rolling the opposite face (1|6, 2|5, 3|4). If the attacker rolls no successful hits, the defender wins

The chart below dictates the defender's chance of successfully blocking an attack by using Aiki

Defender
has
6d6

7d6

8d6

9d6

10d6

11d6

12d6
Attacker has
6d6
57% 66% 75% 81% 86% 89% 92%
7d6 48% 59% 68% 75% 81% 85% 89%
8d6 39% 51% 60% 69% 75% 81% 85%
9d6 32% 43% 53% 63% 69% 76% 82%
10d6
11d6
12d6

Note: These numbers were calculated by running 12,000 simulations per matchup, and are therefore only and approximation. To stress this point, the percentages have been rounded to the nearest whole number


Example

The attacker has an offensive formula of 7d6+5. The defending Cleromancer is using Aiki, which has not been improved and therefore has a defensive formula of 6d6. The attacker rolls 7d6 and gets [6,6,4,3,3,2,1]. This is three successful “hits” from the [6,6,4] rolled. The cleromancer defensively rolls 6d6 and gets [6,5,3,2,2,1]. The cleromancer is successful in neutralizing the attack with the following pairs: (6,6) (6,1) (4,3)

Statistically in a matchup where the attacker has 7d6 and the cleromancer has 6d6, the odds of the cleromancer defending the attack are 48%, from the table above

wiki/aiki probabilities.1491806605.txt.gz · Last modified: 2017/04/10 02:43 by caleymccready